Macroeconomic (macro) concerns, along with a cautious approach towards discretionary information technology (IT) spending, will see the revenue for Indian IT firms decelerate by 5 per cent through 2024-25 (FY25), from the highs of 12-18 per cent in 2022-23, said analysts from S&P Global Ratings. "The reason behind this slow growth is a macro slowdown. "Customers are cutting their discretionary IT spending, especially on projects that take longer to deliver quantifiable outcomes. "We also acknowledge that there are still strong economic headwinds for the next few years," said Spencer Ng, associate director, corporate ratings, S&P Global Ratings, over a call in a media briefing.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook and said sound economic fundamentals will underpin growth over the next 2-3 years. The stable outlook on the long-term rating reflects S&P's view that India's strong economy and healthy revenue growth will support its weak fiscal settings. "S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BBB-' long-term and 'A-3' short-term unsolicited foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on India.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said the hostilities between India and Pakistan heighten risks to the credit metrics of both countries, and any escalation in clashes would put downward pressure on sovereign credit support.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday said the Indian economy is set for "resilient growth" in 2025 and projected inflation pressure to recede which will lead to "modest" easing of the monetary policy by the RBI. In its India outlook for 2025, S&P also retained India's growth forecast for current fiscal at 6.8 per cent, followed by 6.9 per cent growth in 2025-26.
Weeks after it revised the rating outlook of two companies of embattled Adani group, S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said it is watching for additional information on the conglomerate's governance and funding for any ratings action. Investors, it said, seek clarity on the credit impact of a string of allegations against the group in a short-seller report published in late January, and on the findings of a recently launched Supreme Court investigation. S&P Global published an FAQ-style commentary titled, "Adani Group: The Known Unknowns".
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded its long-term ratings on Tata Motors to speculative grade 'BB' with stable outlook on earnings improvements and potential deleveraging. The ratings agency had earlier placed Tata Motors in 'BB-'. As per S&P ratings, a BB grade is less vulnerable in the near-term but faces major ongoing uncertainties to adverse business, financial and economic conditions.
India can become a $6.7 trillion economy by 2031, from $3.4 trillion currently, if the country clocks an average growth of 6.7 per cent for 7 years, an S&P Global report said on Thursday. India had clocked a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in 2022-23 fiscal. But a global slowdown and lagged effect of a policy rate hike by RBI could slow down growth to 6 per cent in the current fiscal, S&P Global said in a report titled 'Look Forward: India's Money'.
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday said several Asia-Pacific economies could face higher tariffs under the Trump administration, while India, South Korea, and Thailand could be most vulnerable to trade retaliation. In its report titled 'Asia-Pacific Economies Likely To Be Hit By US Trade Tariffs', S&P said economies like Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, and South Korea have relatively greater economic exposure to the US, meaning that tariffs, if imposed, would have the largest economic impact.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Nestle, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, ITC, ICICI Bank, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, and HDFC Bank were among the biggest gainers. IndusInd Bank, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
Global rating agency Fitch on Thursday affirmed India's 'BBB-' rating with a stable outlook on strong growth outlook and fiscal credibility. Fitch said India is set to remain among the fastest-growing sovereigns globally with GDP growth of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year and 6.5 per cent in FY26, down from 8.2 per cent in FY24. "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB-' with a Stable Outlook," the global rating agency said in a statement.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday affirmed India's sovereign rating at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-' for the 14th year in a row with a stable outlook, and said that the country's strong external settings will act as a buffer against financial strains despite elevated government funding needs over the next 24 months. The sovereign credit ratings on India reflect the economy's above-average long-term real GDP growth, sound external profile, and evolving monetary settings, S&P Global Ratings stated. "India's democratic institutions promote policy stability and compromise, and also underpin the ratings. "These strengths are balanced against vulnerabilities stemming from the country's low per capita income and weak fiscal settings, including consistently elevated general government deficits and indebtedness," it said in a statement. S&P Global Ratings has forecast economic activity in India to begin to normalise throughout the remainder of fiscal 2022, resulting in real GDP growth of about 9.5 per cent.
S&P Global Ratings on Thursday said about half of the Indian companies that it rates are getting a boost in their core profitability from rupee depreciation. "Much of our rated India corporate portfolio has sizable US-dollar linked revenue and, therefore, is not exposed to rupee depreciation. "This encompasses entities in the IT, metals, and chemicals sectors. About half of the firms we rate are getting an EBITDA boost from currency weakening," the US-based rating agency said in a report.
India is poised to be the third largest global economy by 2030 but rising population presents mounting challenges in basic service coverage and growing investment needs to maintain productivity, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said emerging economies have high ambitions for the next decade and beyond with India aiming to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, from the current $3.6 trillion. India is currently the fifth largest economy.
Roughly 40% of this projected outlay is expected to go towards emerging industries, including green hydrogen, clean energy, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
The November 5 US presidential elections, Federal Reserve interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors, and the upcoming quarterly earnings from domestic firms are the major triggers that would influence sentiments in the equity market this week, analysts said. In an eventful week ahead, a host of macroeconomic data announcements and global trends would also drive the markets, experts said. "The upcoming week is poised to be eventful on the global front.
The rating agency said, rising COVID-19 cases in India will keep private spending and investment lower for longer.
Richest Indian Gautam Adani's group, which has grown on acquisitions, has fairly solid fundamentals but debt-funded future acquisitions can start putting pressure on ratings, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Starting out as a commodities trader in 1988, the Adani group has diversified from mines, ports and power plants into airports, data centres and defence. It recently forayed into the cement sector with a $10.5 billion acquisition of Holcim's India units and is also looking to set up an aluminium factory. Most of this expansion has been funded by debt.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth projection for the current fiscal to -7.7 per cent from -9 per cent estimated earlier on rising demand and falling COVID infection rates. "Rising demand and falling infection rates have tempered our expectation of COVID's hit on the Indian economy. S&P Global Ratings has revised real GDP growth to negative 7.7 per cent for the year ending March 2021, from negative 9 per cent previously," S&P said in a statement. The US-based rating agency said its revision in growth forecast reflects a faster-than-expected recovery in the quarter through September. For the next fiscal, it projected India's growth to rebound to 10 per cent.
India's GDP growth rate will rise to 7 per cent by 2026 compared to 4.6 per cent for China, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. In a report titled 'China Slows India Grows', S&P said it expects Asia-Pacific's growth engine to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia. "We project China's GDP growth to slow to 4.6 per cent in 2024 (2023: 5.4 per cent), edge up to 4.8 per cent in 2025, and return to 4.6 per cent in 2026.
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped from 57.5 in September to 55.5 in October, the slowest rate of expansion since February. The October PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 28th straight month.
India's services sector activity eased in August but growth rates for new orders remain elevated, as services firms indicated the sharpest upturn in new export business which acted as a catalyst for firms to expand their workforces as well as output, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. Despite falling from 62.3 in July to 60.1 in August, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index indicated one of the strongest increases in output seen since mid-2010. For the 25th straight month, the headline figure was above the neutral 50 threshold.
The rating agency, however, pointed out that India's fiscal position remains precarious, with elevated fiscal deficits and net government indebtedness.
Indian economy is expected to clock an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent till 2026-27 fiscal driven by domestic consumption, S&P Global Ratings senior Economist (Asia Pacific) Vishrut Rana said on Wednesday. He said the economic growth in the current fiscal is expected to come in around 6 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent clocked in 2022-23. "We are seeing some headwinds from the trade side which is affecting activity and that is one of the factors that is affecting growth this year," Rana said at a webinar.
India's services sector growth eased to a three-month low in June but service providers continued to signal positive demand trends, which resulted in a stronger increase in new business volumes and further job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 61.2 in May to 58.5 in June. Despite falling from May, the latest figure was consistent with a sharp pace of growth.
Manufacturing activities in India gained momentum in August as new orders and output increased at the quickest rates in nearly three years, according to a survey released on Friday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 58.6 in August from 57.7 in July. Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the PMI results for India painted a vibrant picture of the nation's manufacturing landscape in August.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast to 5.2 per cent for 2020, saying the global economy is entering a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic. The agency had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.7 per cent during the 2020 calendar.
Apple will source the majority of the iPhone sold in the US from India in the June quarter while China will produce the vast majority of the devices for other markets amid uncertainty over tax tariffs, a top official said on Friday.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty declined nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday, falling for the fourth day running amid profit-taking by cautious investors ahead of the results of the Lok Sabha polls. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 667.55 points or 0.89 per cent to settle at 74,502.90. It went below the 75,000 mark to hit the day's low of 74,454.55, plunging 715.9 points or 0.95 per cent.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors and Larsen & Toubro were the biggest gainers. Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
India's economic growth prospects should remain strong over the medium term, with GDP expanding 6-7.1 per cent annually in fiscal years 2024-2026, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. In a report titled 'Global Banks Country-By-Country Outlook 2024', S&P said the banking sector's weak loans will decline to 3-3.5 per cent of gross advances by March 31, 2025, on the back of structural improvement, including healthy corporate balance sheets, tighter underwriting standards and improved risk-management practices. Interest rates in India are unlikely to rise materially, and this should limit the risk for the banking industry, it added.
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